Subventions et des contributions :

Subvention ou bourse octroyée s'appliquant à plus d'un exercice financier (2017-2018 à 2018-2019).

For half a century, the 100-year flood hazard zone (FHZ) has been enshrined in culture and law as a planningx000D
tool to limit the growth of flood risk. This FHZ can be seen as a flood risk reduction tool with two mainx000D
components: 1) spatial extents; and 2) flood rules. While flood rules vary (flood proofing requirements, usex000D
restrictions, insurance regulations, and so on), many jurisdictions in the US and Canada use a single floodx000D
probability to map the spatial extents. Generally, a 1% probability or 100-yr return period has been selected forx000D
this as a compromise between revenue generating land-uses and flood exposure. We seek to explore the effectx000D
of this arbitrary return period, and ask: how does the 100-yr FHZ affect flood risk?x000D
To answer this question, we will compare the expected lifetime flood damage of different FHZ floodx000D
probabilities. First, we will simulate stochastic flooding on an evolving city-scape in reaction to flood proofingx000D
requirements for reconstructions within the FHZ. Then, assuming flood rules tied to a redefined FHZ wouldx000D
only apply to reconstruction, we will focus on temporal and spatial dynamics of reconstruction decisions, thex000D
accompanying reduction in vulnerability, and the scaled-up effect of these actions on the total expected floodx000D
damage in monetary terms for a city.x000D
This proposed study leverages the flood risk assessments conducted by IBI Group for the City of Calgaryx000D
following the 2013 Southern Alberta Floods, which informed decisions by projecting the existing risk forward.x000D
In partnership with IBI, the proposed study will take the next step: investigating how flood risk may changex000D
over time in a dynamic city and how this can be minimized. This novel application of agent-based modellingx000D
will provide an additional tool for decision makers to navigate the uncertainty of flood risk in a dynamic city.