Note pour la période des questions : Enquête sur la population active

• Le nombre d’emplois a progressé de 39 000 en mai, une légère hausse par rapport aux attentes du marché d’un gain de 30 000.

• Le taux de chômage a reculé à 5,1 % en mai, un nouveau record, alors que le taux d’activité est resté à 65,3 %.

• Le marché du travail canadien se porte très bien, puisqu’au moins un demi-million de Canadiens ont un emploi comparativement à la période antérieure à la COVID.

• Le Canada a maintenant récupéré 117 % des emplois perdus pendant la pandémie, comparativement à seulement 96 % aux États-Unis.

• Le taux de chômage est tombé à 5,1 % en mai, ce qui a encore une fois marqué un nouveau record.

• On s’attend à ce que les gains d’emploi à l’avenir soient modérés, puisque la reprise de l’emploi au Canada a été exceptionnellement forte et que le marché du travail est serré.

• Dans le budget de 2022, le gouvernement fait des investissements ciblés et responsables afin de créer des emplois et d’assurer la prospérité aujourd’hui, ainsi que de bâtir un avenir économique plus solide pour tous les Canadiens.

S.O.

• Bottom Line: The economy posted solid job gains in May and the unemployment rate hit a new record low of 5.1%. With a tight labour market, wage growth picked up to 3.9% (from 3.3% last month) and is now above its 2019 pace of 3.5%.

• Recovery Relative to Pre-Pandemic: The 39,800 job gain brings employment 496,700 (+2.6%) above its pre-pandemic level. Overall, 117% of the jobs lost since the peak of the pandemic have been recouped in Canada (up from 115% April), well ahead of the U.S. (96%). The labour force participation rate remained at 65.3%, near its pre-pandemic level (65.6%) and well above the U.S. rate of 62.3%.

• Full-time Jobs and Hours Worked: The jobs gain in May was entirely due to a surge in full-time work (+135,000), as part-time work declined (-96,000). Total hours worked unexpectedly fell (-0.3%), despite illness-related absences returning to more normal levels and the gain in full-time work. Total hours worked are 0.7% above pre-pandemic levels.

• Industries: Employment gains were entirely due to a 108,000 increase in public sector employees and self-employment (+26,000), while private sector employment decline by 95,000. Services industries (+81,000) saw strong gains, led by an expansion in retail and wholesale trade (+37,800) and a recovery in accommodation and food services (+20,000), but also gains in educational services (+23,900) and scientific and technical services (+21,000). However, notable losses were seen in transportation and warehousing (-25,000), as well as finance and real estate (-19,000) along with a weakening housing market. A decline in goods-producing industries (-41,200) was entirely due to losses in manufacturing (-43,200) reflecting ongoing supply-chain challenges.

• Provinces: Employment was driven by gains in Alberta (+27,500) and British Columbia (+5,100), with little to no change in other provinces.

• Demographics: Employment growth was led by core-aged women (+22,800), while the employment of core-aged men (-1,000) changed little. Reflecting better conditions for summer employment, youth (15 to 24) employment rose by 21,300 while older Canadians (aged 55 and older) saw little change in employment.

• Wages: With a tight labour market, wage growth (year-over-year) accelerated to 3.9% from 3.3% in April, and above its 2019 pace of 3.5%. Faster increases were seen among permanent (+4.5%) and full-time employees (+4.3%).

• Outlook: The May survey shows that Canada’s labour market remains tight and wage pressures are building. While labour demand is still strong, monthly job gains are set to moderate going forward, as employment in most sectors has recovered and the pool of available workers has considerably shrunk. Despite this, uncertainties are high, reflecting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, and the impact of rising interest rates on the economy.